Peramalan Perencanaan Produksi Batu Tela Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus Pada CV. Sinar Sowi Kabupaten Manokwari)

Abstract

This study aims to find out how much forecasting the production of concrete brick at CV. Sinar Sowi. The data analysis method used is the Exponential Smoothing method by using forecasting error measurements namely Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). From the data that has been analyzed, the writer can conclude that the use of alpha model 0.1 Exponential Smoothing method, the value of the Exponential Smoothing method, the value of Mean Square Error is 11,114,950 and the value of Mean Absolute Deviation is 962. The use of alpha 0.5 model Exponential Smoothing method, the value of Mean Square Error is 1,114,776 and the value of Mean Absolute Deviation is 305. While the use of the alpha 0.9 model is Exponential Smoothing, the Mean Square Error value is -9.374 and the Mean Absolute Deviation value is -28. Of the three existing alpha models, namely 0.1; 0.5 and 0.9, then what will be used in forecasting is alpha 0.9 because the error value is the lowest, namely the Mean Square Error of -9,374 and Mean Absolute Deviation is -28. From the calculation of concrete brick forecasting at CV. Sinar Sowi in Manokwari Regency, the forecasting results were 39,698 units.